Resumen

The assessment of water availability has become relevant considering the effects of climate change on water production in river basins. The estimation of available flows in surface water flows is based on the implementation of hydrological models, which implies having a large amount of information that in many cases is not available. Therefore, the objectives of this proposal are: i) to model the hydrology of the Saldaña river basin in South America and ii) to evaluate the water production of the basin in climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the conceptualization of the hydrological model TETIS was applied in an aggregate way for the hydrological modeling with daily temporal resolution and for the monthly scale, the abcd model was applied. Simulation scenarios based on the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were proposed, so that it was possible to evaluate the effect of climate change on water availability in the basin. The results obtained demonstrate the potential of the implementation of aggregated models in the process of estimating water supply and planning processes of adaptation measures to climate change.