Modelación de la disponibilidad hídrica de río Guatiquía (Meta) en escenarios de cambio climático
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The Guatiquía River is located in the department of Meta, in central Colombia; it has its source in the Chingaza moor in Cundinamarca and its mouth in the Humea River in Meta, to then carry its waters to the Meta River. The riverbed of the Guatiquía River is neighboring the city of Villavicencio and it is in charge of supplying the aqueduct of the capital of the department (CORMACARENA, UAESPNN, & CAEMA, 2009). Based on the foregoing considerations, the effects of climate change on the Guatiquía River were analyzed. According to the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies IDEAM in its third national communication of Colombia predicted for the Guatiquía River basin a reduction in rainfall of up to 20% and by 2100 is expected a temperature increase of 2.5°C in the department. (IDEAM, PNUD, MADS, DNP, & CANCILLERÍA, 2017). The fundamental aspect to evaluate of the Guatiquía River in the face of climate change scenarios is the supply capacity of the Villavicencio aqueduct. The water availability of the river will be determined in climate change scenarios by means of hydrological balance models. For Andray (1997) a hydrological balance model is the calculation method to evaluate the water retention capacity of the soil. When the soil completes its capacity to store water, all water inputs, mainly precipitation, become groundwater or surface water flows. From the values of precipitation, temperature and the physical characteristics of the soil, in a defined time interval, a hydrological model can recreate the flow of surface water that occurs in the area.