Examinando por Autor "Montes, Felipe"
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- PublicaciónSólo datosA systematic review of empirical and simulation studies evaluating the health impact of transportation interventions(Environmental Research, 2020-07-01) Stankov, Ivana; M.T. Garcia, Leandro; Mascolli, Maria Antonietta; Montes, Felipe; Meisel, José D.; Gouveia, Nelson; Sarmiento, Olga L.; Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Hammond, Ross A.; Teixeira Caiaffa, Waleska; Diez Roux, Ana V.Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required.
- PublicaciónSólo datosA systematic review of empirical and simulation studies evaluating the health impact of transportation interventions(Environmental Research, 2020-07-10) Stankov, Ivana; Garcia, Leandro M.T.; Mascolli, Maria Antonietta; Montes, Felipe; Meisel, José D.; Gouveia, Nelson; Sarmiento, Olga L.; Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Hammond, Ross A.; Teixeira Caiaffa, Waleska; Diez Roux, Ana V.Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required.
- PublicaciónSólo datosBenchmarking seeding strategies for spreading processes in social networks: an interplay between influencers, topologies and sizes(Scientific Reports, 2020-02-28) Montes, Felipe; Jaramillo, Ana María; Meisel, Jose D.; Diaz-Guilera, Albert; Valdivia, Juan A.; Sarmiento, Olga L.; Zarama, RobertoThe explosion of network science has permitted an understanding of how the structure of social networks affects the dynamics of social contagion. In community-based interventions with spill-over effects, identifying influential spreaders may be harnessed to increase the spreading efficiency of social contagion, in terms of time needed to spread all the largest connected component of the network. Several strategies have been proved to be efficient using only data and simulation-based models in specific network topologies without a consensus of an overall result. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to benchmark the spreading efficiency of seeding strategies related to network structural properties and sizes. We simulate spreading processes on empirical and simulated social networks within a wide range of densities, clustering coefficients, and sizes. We also propose three new decentralized seeding strategies that are structurally different from well-known strategies: community hubs, ambassadors, and random hubs. We observe that the efficiency ranking of strategies varies with the network structure. In general, for sparse networks with community structure, decentralized influencers are suitable for increasing the spreading efficiency. By contrast, when the networks are denser, centralized influencers outperform. These results provide a framework for selecting efficient strategies according to different contexts in which social networks emerge.
- PublicaciónSólo datosComplex Systems Approaches to Diet: A Systematic Review(American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2019-07-17) Langellier, Brent A.; Bilal, Usama; Montes, Felipe; Meisel, Jose D.; de Oliveira Cardoso, Letícia; Hammond, Ross A.Context Complex systems approaches can help to elucidate mechanisms that shape population-level patterns in diet and inform policy approaches. This study reports results of a structured review of key design elements and methods used by existing complex systems models of diet. Evidence acquisition The authors conducted systematic searches of the PubMed, Web of Science, and LILACS databases between May and September 2018 to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts that used agent-based models or system dynamics models to explore diet. Searches occurred between November 2017 and May 2018. The authors extracted relevant data regarding each study's diet and nutrition outcomes; use of data for parameterization, calibration, and validation; results; and generated insights. The literature search adhered to PRISMA guidelines. Evidence synthesis Twenty-two agent-based model studies and five system dynamics model studies met the inclusion criteria. Mechanistic studies explored neighborhood- (e.g., residential segregation), interpersonal- (e.g., social influence) and individual-level (e.g., heuristics that guide food purchasing decisions) mechanisms that influence diet. Policy-oriented studies examined policies related to food pricing, the food environment, advertising, nutrition labels, and social norms. Most studies used empirical data to inform values of key parameters; studies varied in their approaches to calibration and validation. Conclusions Opportunities remain to advance the state of the science of complex systems approaches to diet and nutrition. These include using models to better understand mechanisms driving population-level diet, increasing use of models for policy decision support, and leveraging the wide availability of epidemiologic and policy evaluation data to improve model validation.
- PublicaciónSólo datosEffects of a Physical Activity Program Potentiated with ICTs on the Formation and Dissolution of Friendship Networks of Children in a Middle-Income Country(International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020-08-11) Guerra, Ana M.; Montes, Felipe; Useche, Andrés F.; Jaramillo, Ana María; González, Silvia A.; Meisel, Jose D.; Obando, Catalina; Cardozo, Valentina; Hunter, Ruth F.; Sarmiento, Olga L.This paper assesses the potential cohesion effect of a physical activity (PA) school-based intervention potentiated using text messages (SMS) through analyzing longitudinally the friendship network structure and the mechanisms of the formation and dissolution of friendships. Three schools (n = 125 participants) in Bogotá, Colombia, were randomly assigned into three groups: Modulo Activo Recreo Activo (MARA) + SMS (networks 1 and 2), MARA (networks 3 and 4), and control (no intervention: networks 5–7). We collected socio-economic, health-related, network structure, and intervention satisfaction variables in the baseline and after 10 weeks on July–November 2013. For each classroom network, we conducted four models using a temporal and static network approach to assess (1) temporal social network changes, (2) friendship homophily, (3) friendship formation and dissolution mechanisms, and (4) effect of SMS on the networks’ cohesion. We found that (1) social cohesion emerged in the four intervened networks that were measured over time with transitivity and homophily driven by clustering, (2) the intervention affected the mechanisms of friendship formation and dissolution, and (3) MARA + SMS on average created more social cohesion and 3.8 more friendships than the program alone. Potentially, school-based interventions with information and communication technologies (ICT) such as MARA + SMS could encourage social cohesion among children. The particular characteristics of each school network need to be considered when developing school-based interventions.
- PublicaciónSólo datosFrom causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America(Social Science and Medicine, 2021-06-21) Stankov, Ivana; Useche, Andrés Felipe; Meisel, Jose D.; Montes, Felipe; Morais, Lidia MO.; Friche, Amelia AL.; Langellier, Brent A.; Hovmand, Peter; Sarmiento, Olga Lucia; Hammond, Ross A.; Diez Roux, Ana V.Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants’ perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, ‘healthy’ scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of ‘healthy’ scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.
- PublicaciónSólo datosFrom causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America(Social Science and Medicine, 2021-06-21) Stankov, Ivana; Useche, Andrés F.; Meisel, Jose D.; Montes, Felipe; Morais, Lidia MO.; Friche, Amelia AL.; Langellier, Brent A.; Hovmand, Peter; Sarmiento, Olga L.; Hammond, Ross A.; Diez Roux, Ana V.Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants’ perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, ‘healthy’ scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of ‘healthy’ scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.
- PublicaciónSólo datosIs a social network approach relevant to football results?(Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 2021-01-20) Medina, Pablo; Carrasco, Sebastián; Rogan, José; Montes, Felipe; Meisel, Jose D.; Lemoine, Pablo; Lago Peñas, Carlos; Alejandro Valdivia, JuanWe study the relevance of considering social network analysis in determining soccer results. As a benchmark, we start using a simple regression model based on past performance to try to determine the main trends of a soccer match based on probabilities of winning, losing or tying, as home or visiting teams. The success of this simple model, based on historical performance, is improved by the addition of network descriptors of both teams in a game. Therefore, such network measures do offer additional useful information in determining match outcomes. We validate our approach using the data of the Spanish League (La Liga) 2012–2013. We observe that betweenness centrality seems to provide additional relevance information related to the performance of a team during the tournament.
- PublicaciónSólo datosNetwork analysis of collaboration in networked universities(Kybernetes, 2021-06-01) Meisel, Jose D.; Montes, Felipe; Ramírez, Angie M.; Lemoine, Pablo D.; Valdivia, Juan A.; Zarama, RobertoPurpose In Latin America and the Caribbean, the access of students to higher education has presented an extraordinary growth over the past fifteen years. This rapid growth has presented a challenge for increasing the system resources and capabilities while maintaining its quality. As a result, the networked universities (NUs) organized themselves as a collaborative network, and they have become an interesting model for facing the complexity driven by globalization, rapidly changing technology, dynamic growth of knowledge and highly specialized areas of expertise. In this article, we studied the NU named Red Universitaria Mutis (Red Mutis) with the aim of characterizing the collaboration and integration structure of the network. Design/methodology/approach Network analytic methods (visual analysis, positional analysis and a stochastic network method) were used to characterize the organizational structure and robustness of the network, and to identify what variables or structural tendencies are related to the likelihood that specific areas of a university would collaborate. Findings Red Mutis is a good example of regional NUs that could take advantage of the strengths, partnerships, information and knowledge of the regional and international universities that form the network. Analyses showed that Red Mutis has a differentiated structure consisting of academic and non-academic university areas with a vertical coordination (by steering and management) of the different university areas. Originality/value The methodology could be used as a framework to analyze and strengthen other strategic alliances between universities and as a model for the development of other NU in local and global contexts.
- PublicaciónSólo datosNetwork analysis of collaboration in networked universities(Kybernetes, 2021-06-01) Meisel, Jose D.; Montes, Felipe; Ramírez, Angie M.; Lemoine, Pablo D.; Valdivia, Juan A.; Zarama, RobertoPurpose In Latin America and the Caribbean, the access of students to higher education has presented an extraordinary growth over the past fifteen years. This rapid growth has presented a challenge for increasing the system resources and capabilities while maintaining its quality. As a result, the networked universities (NUs) organized themselves as a collaborative network, and they have become an interesting model for facing the complexity driven by globalization, rapidly changing technology, dynamic growth of knowledge and highly specialized areas of expertise. In this article, we studied the NU named Red Universitaria Mutis (Red Mutis) with the aim of characterizing the collaboration and integration structure of the network. Design/methodology/approach Network analytic methods (visual analysis, positional analysis and a stochastic network method) were used to characterize the organizational structure and robustness of the network, and to identify what variables or structural tendencies are related to the likelihood that specific areas of a university would collaborate. Findings Red Mutis is a good example of regional NUs that could take advantage of the strengths, partnerships, information and knowledge of the regional and international universities that form the network. Analyses showed that Red Mutis has a differentiated structure consisting of academic and non-academic university areas with a vertical coordination (by steering and management) of the different university areas. Originality/value The methodology could be used as a framework to analyze and strengthen other strategic alliances between universities and as a model for the development of other NU in local and global contexts.
- PublicaciónSólo datosUrban Transformations and Health: Methods for TrUST—a Natural Experiment Evaluating the Impacts of a Mass Transit Cable Car in Bogotá, Colombia(Frontiers in Public Health, 2020-03-10) Sarmiento, Olga L.; Higuera-Mendieta, Diana; Wilches-Mogollon, Maria A.; Guzman, Luis A.; Rodríguez, Daniel A.; Morales, Ricardo; Bedoya, Claudia; Linares-Vásquez, Mario; Arévalo, Maria Isabel; Martínez-Herrera, Eliana; Montes, Felipe; Meisel, Jose D.; Useche, Andrés F.; García, Elizabeth; Triana, Camilo A.; Medaglia, Andrés L.; Hessel, Philipp; Arellana, Julián; Moncada, Carlos; King, Abby C.; Diez Roux, Ana V.Cable cars provide urban mobility benefits for vulnerable populations. However, no evaluation has assessed cable cars' impact from a health perspective. TransMiCable in Bogotá, Colombia, provides a unique opportunity to (1) assess the effects of its implementation on the environmental and social determinants of health (microenvironment pollution, transport accessibility, physical environment, employment, social capital, and leisure time), physical activity, and health outcomes (health-related quality of life, respiratory diseases, and homicides); and (2) use citizen science methods to identify, prioritize, and communicate the most salient negative and positive features impacting health and quality of life in TransMiCable's area, as well as facilitate a consensus and advocacy-building change process among community members, policymakers, and academic researchers.
- PublicaciónSólo datosUsing a system dynamics model to study the obesity transition by socioeconomic status in Colombia at the country, regional and department levels(BMJ Open, 2020-06-03) Meisel, Jose D.; Ramirez, Angie M.; Esguerra, Valentina; Montes, Felipe; Stankov, Ivana; Sarmiento, Olga L.; Valdivia, Juan A.Objective: We study the obesity transition by socioeconomic status (SES), gender and age within the Colombian urban population at the country, regional and department levels. Design: The study is informed by cross-sectional data from the 2005 and 2010 ENSIN survey. We used these data to develop a system dynamics model that simulates the dynamics of obesity by body mass index (BMI) categories, gender and SES at the country, regional and department levels from 2005 to 2030. Participants: The sample size of the 2005 ENSIN comprised 8515 children younger than 5 years, 32 009 children and adolescents aged 5–17 years and 48 056 adults aged 18–64 years. In 2010, the corresponding numbers were 11 368, 32 524 and 64 425, respectively. Primary and secondary outcome measure: The obesity prevalence ratio and prevalence rates for each BMI category. Results: The results show, at the country level, transitions from overweight to obesity were projected to increase sharply among lower SES adults, particularly among women, suggesting that these groups will undergo an obesity transition by 2030. The model projections also indicate that the regions of Colombia are in different stages of the obesity transition. In the case of women, five out of the six regions were expected to undergo an obesity transition by SES over time. For men, only one region was expected to undergo an obesity transition. However, at the department level, trends in the burden of obesity varied. Conclusions: We evidence that the Colombian population could be experiencing an obesity transition where the increase in the GDP could be related to shifts in the burden of obesity from higher to lower SES, especially in women. These patterns support the need for policy planning that considers SES and gender, at the national and subnational levels, as important determinants of overweight and obesity among adults in Colombia.
- PublicaciónSólo datosUsing cause-effect graphs to elicit expert knowledge for cross-impact balance analysis(MethodsX, 2021-08-17) Stankova, Ivana; Useche, Andres F.; Meisel, Jose D.; Montes, Felipe; Morais, Lidia MO.; Friche, Amelia AL.; Langellier, Brent A.; Hovman, Peter; Sarmiento, Olga L.; Hammond, Ross A.; Diez Roux, Ana V.Ross-impact balance (CIB) analysis leverages expert knowledge pertaining to the nature and strength of relationships between components of a system to identify the most plausible future ‘scenarios’ of the system. These scenarios, also referred to as ‘storylines’, provide qualitative insights into how the state of one factor can either promote or restrict the future state of one or multiple other factors in the system. This paper presents a novel, visually oriented questionnaire developed to elicit expert knowledge about the relationships between key factors in a system, for the purpose of CIB analysis. The questionnaire requires experts to make selections from a series of standardized cause-effect graphical profiles that depict a range of linear and non-linear relationships between factor pairs. The questionnaire and the process of translating the graphical selections into data that can be used for CIB analysis is described using an applied example which focuses on urban health in Latin American cities. • A questionnaire featuring a set of standardized cause-effect profiles was developed. • Cause-effect profiles were used to elicit information about the strength of linear and non-linear bivariate relationships. • The questionnaire represents an intuitive visual means for collecting data required for the conduct of CIB analysis.